Mike Trout's Knee Injury, How It Affects His Hall of Fame Chances

Here’s a way of breaking down the Baseball Hall of Fame that’s different from anything I’ve done before—and I’m only doing it today to talk about just how heartbroken I am over the news that Mike Trout is hurt yet again. This time it’s his knee; he needs surgery. The Angels were quick to say that they don’t believe it to be season-ending.

You know things are getting repetitive on the injury front when the first thing that anyone says is “We don’t think it’s season-ending.”

But we’ll get back to Trout in a minute.

Here’s what I want to do: I want to show you who was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers Association of America in every decade since the 1960s. I’ll bold those who were elected on the first ballot. There are a couple of points to this, and, in time, we’ll get it back around to Mike Trout.

1960s: 6 (5 first-ballot)

1962: Bob Feller
1962: Jackie Robinson
1966: Ted Williams
1968: Joe Medwick
1969: Roy Campanella
1969: Stan Musial

1970s: 14 (6 first-ballot)

1970: Lou Boudreau
1972: Yogi Berra
1972: Sandy Koufax
1972: Early Wynn
1973: Roberto Clemente
1973: Warren Spahn
1974: Whitey Ford
1974: Mickey Mantle
1975: Ralph Kiner
1976: Bob Lemon
1976: Robin Roberts
1977: Ernie Banks
1978: Eddie Mathews
1979: Willie Mays

1980s: 18 (10 first-ballot)

1980: Al Kaline
1980: Duke Snider
1981: Bob Gibson
1982: Henry Aaron
1982: Frank Robinson
1983: Juan Marichal
1983: Brooks Robinson
1984: Luis Aparicio
1984: Don Drysdale
1984: Harmon Killebrew
1985: Lou Brock
1985: Hoyt Wilhelm
1986: Willie McCovey
1987: Catfish Hunter
1987: Billy Williams
1988: Willie Stargell
1989: Johnny Bench
1989: Carl Yastrzemski

1990s: 15 (10 first-ballot)

1990: Joe Morgan
1990: Jim Palmer
1991: Rod Carew
1991: Ferguson Jenkins
1991: Gaylord Perry
1992: Rollie Fingers
1992: Tom Seaver
1993: Reggie Jackson
1994: Steve Carlton
1995: Mike Schmidt
1997: Phil Niekro
1998: Don Sutton
1999: George Brett
1999: Nolan Ryan
1999: Robin Yount

2000s: 17 (10 first-ballot)

2000: Carlton Fisk
2000: Tony Pérez
2001: Kirby Puckett
2001: Dave Winfield
2002: Ozzie Smith
2003: Gary Carter
2003: Eddie Murray
2004: Dennis Eckersley
2004: Paul Molitor
2005: Wade Boggs
2005: Ryne Sandberg
2006: Bruce Sutter
2007: Tony Gwynn
2007: Cal Ripken Jr.
2008: Goose Gossage
2009: Rickey Henderson
2009: Jim Rice

2010s: 24 (12 first-ballot)

2010: Andre Dawson
2011: Roberto Alomar
2011: Bert Blyleven
2012: Barry Larkin
2014: Tom Glavine
2014: Greg Maddux
2014: Frank Thomas
2015: Craig Biggio
2015: Randy Johnson
2015: Pedro Martinez
2015: John Smoltz
2016: Ken Griffey Jr.
2016: Mike Piazza
2017: Jeff Bagwell
2017: Tim Raines
2017: Iván Rodríguez
2018: Vladimir Guerrero
2018: Trevor Hoffman
2018: Chipper Jones
2018: Jim Thome
2019: Roy Halladay
2019: Edgar Martinez
2019: Mike Mussina
2019: Mariano Rivera

2020s so far: 7 (4 first-ballot)

2020: Derek Jeter
2020: Larry Walker
2022: David Ortiz
2023: Scott Rolen
2024: Adrián Beltré
2024: Todd Helton
2024: Joe Mauer

I’m hoping that will be fun for you to peruse. I could do any number of essays just on this list. But today I’m focused on one thing: Since 1980 (the 1960s and 1970s were quirky):

It’s a lovely mathematical poem. There is basically one first-ballot Hall of Famer for every year. No more. No less.*

*You could really include the 1970s in this, too—yes, there were only six first-ballot Hall of Famers elected in that decade, but that’s only because the BBWAA was an ungenerous lot in those days. They didn’t vote in Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Eddie Mathews, or Robin Roberts on the first ballot. All four of them were clearly first-ballot Hall of Fame guys. The number that decade should been ten, too.

If you carry it out the rest of this decade, you’ll see what I mean. Remember, there have been four so far:

2025: Ichiro will be elected first-ballot. That will make five. I have this strong feeling that CC Sabathia will also be elected first-ballot to make six.

2027: I believe Buster Posey will be elected first-ballot. That will make seven.

2028: Albert Pujols will be elected first-ballot to make eight. I’m pretty sure that Yadi Molina will also be elected first-ballot to make nine.

2029: Miguel Cabrera will be elected first-ballot. That’s ten.

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Of course, it doesn’t have to work out that way—maybe Sabathia, Posey, and Yadi will not be elected first-ballot and there will only be seven. But you get the point I’m making, right? Going back more or less to the beginning of modern-day Hall of Fame voting, it has been a remarkably stable pattern.

So let’s look at those 46 first-ballot Hall of Famers. Well, actually, I only want to look at the position players—33 of the 46 were every-day players.

But how every-day?

Number of seasons playing 140 games:

1980s

1990s

2000s

*Gwynn represents those players who were hurt by the strike—he didn’t get into 140 games in either 1994 or 1995 but, like others of his time (including, most prominently, Ripken), almost certainly would have otherwise.

2010s

2020s

Okay, removing the catchers, the average number of 140-plus-game seasons that a first-ballot Hall of Fame position player has in a career is 12. That sounds about right. There are a handful of players who, for one reason or another, had quite a bit fewer than that. Gwynn, as mentioned, was affected by the 1994-95 strike. McCovey split time early in his career and was hampered by chronic hip and leg injuries for the last ten years. Stargell dealt with injury after injury throughout his career and never played in more than 148 games in any season.

Mike Trout has five 140-plus-game seasons in his entire career. Just five.

But generally speaking, the greatest players have ten seasons, 12 seasons, or more when they essentially are out there every day.

Mike Trout has five 140-plus-game seasons in his entire career. Just five. No first-ballot Hall of Famer (not even short-career guys like Kirby Puckett) have had so few.

From 2013 to 2016—from age 21 to 24—Trout played pretty much every day. He averaged 158 games per season and looked to be indestructible. Alas, don’t we all feel indestructible in our early 20s? I’m putting together another list where I track the best player in baseball over the last 100 years. Mike Trout had a nice stretch as the best player in baseball.

Since 2016, however, he’s had only one season when he played 140 games (exactly 140 games, in fact). He did play 53 out of 60 games during the Covid season and maybe would have gotten to 140 that year. Maybe.

los angeles angels v cincinnati redsDylan Buell//Getty Images

Trout turns 33 in August, and he’s had significant injuries to his thumb, his wrist, his elbow, his foot, his toe, his calf, his knee, and his back.

We’ve talked about this a lot here: The most underappreciated part of greatness is showing up. It’s also, in my opinion, one of the most misunderstood parts of greatness. Look at the 162-game averages for Willie Mays and Mike Trout through age 33:

Mays: .313/.388/.588, 161 OPS+, 39 homers, 113 RBIs, 120 runs, 23 steals.

Trout: .299/.410/.582, 173 OPS+, 40 homers, 102 RBIs, 120 runs, 23 steals.

Pretty darned close. So why was Willie Mays able to do what he did year after year after year—he played 150-plus games in every year of his prime—while Mike Trout has not? Luck? Body type? Playing style? Training regimen? Changes in the game? These are mysteries.

What we can now say is that Mike Trout turns 33 in August, and it’s an old 33, with all he’s been through. He’s had significant injuries to his thumb, his wrist, his elbow, his foot, his toe, his calf, his wrist again, his knee, and, most infamously, his back, which might never be fully right. He has six years left on his $426.5 million deal, and he will be motivated—I don’t think anyone should ever question Trout’s motivation—and you never know what the future holds.

David Ortiz had half of his 140-game seasons after turning 34. (Maybe at some point Trout becomes a full-time DH?) George Brett, after being injury-prone throughout his career, had four 140-game seasons after 34. I mean, you never know.

But the way the wind is blowing, Mike Trout seems on a very different trajectory from just a few short years ago, when we were talking about him as a candidate for best ever. He will get elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, even if he retires tomorrow. He will go down in history as an all-time great. But it does seem more and more that for many, his career will be remembered as much for what might have been as for what it actually was… and there’s just something so powerfully sad about that.

Lettermark

Joe Posnanski has been named the best sportswriter in America by five different organizations, including the Sports Media Hall of Fame and the Associated Press Sports Editors. He has also won two Sports Emmy Awards. He is the No. 1 New York Times bestselling author of six books, and he co-hosts the PosCast with television writer and creator Michael Schur.  

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